关于中美贸易战,李显龙在《华盛顿邮报》上如是说

2018年07月09日

4月18日,李显龙在《华盛顿邮报》上发表《没有人想要进行贸易战》,以下为翻译内容:

中美两国之间的贸易摩擦已经酝酿一段时间了。但随着特朗普政府宣布针对中国的进口物品征收单方面关税,一场贸易战的威胁变得前所未有的清晰。

关于中美贸易战,李显龙在《华盛顿邮报》上如是说

美国对此措施提供了广泛的政治支持。之前主张让中国加入世界贸易组织的美国企业现在觉得在中国开展业务使他们处于不利地位。

他们有依据地认为,竞争环境很不平衡,市场入口有限,投资受限,特别是金融和技术领域。中国以前GDP占世界总值的5%左右,当时制定的贸易安排和让步措施在今天已经不太适用了,因为中国现在的份额已经上升到15%。

但单方面提高关税并不是正确的解决方案。美国和中国之间的贸易战绝不是无法避免的,但一旦爆发,它将严重破坏自二战结束以来支撑全球繁荣的,以规则为基础的多边体系。世界各国,无论大小,都会被殃及。

我们相信贸易纠纷,应该在世贸组织的框架内得到解决。正如经济学家所指出的那样,在评估经济关系时,最重要的不是一个国家与个别贸易伙伴建立的良好双边关系,而是与世界其他国家所建立的整体贸易平衡。

此外,造成国家贸易逆差的原因应该在国内寻找。贸易逆差是一个国家消费多于产量的结果,它既不是因贸易限制造成,也不能以贸易限制解决。

中美两国有着世界上最重要的双边关系。这两个国家都受益于一个开放的,以规则为基础的国际秩序和多边贸易体系。这促进了亚太地区的经济合作,并加深了亚洲、美国、欧洲和世界其他地区的互相依赖性。

亚洲是美国商品和服务增长最快的出口市场。作为全球第二大港口和第四大金融中心,新加坡是连接美国和亚洲经济的全球枢纽。我们是一个规模较小的开放经济体,贸易总量是我们GDP的三倍多。世界上两个最大的两个经济体之间的贸易战将对新加坡产生巨大的负面影响。

自2001年中国加入世贸组织以来,它在国际经济的地位和全球贸易的比重大幅增长。这改变了整体的战略平衡格局。我们也提出合理的期望,希望中国可以进一步开放市场,为多边贸易体系做出更多贡献。

中国已宣布致力于维护开放性和多边主义。亚洲基础设施投资银行和“一带一路”是中国加强贸易和投资关系,加强一体化和相互依存的两大努力。在最近的博鳌论坛上,XI主席宣布了进一步开放中国金融业,提高外商投资自由度,保护知识产权和降低汽车进口关税的计划。特朗普总统已经承认并欢迎这些举措。我们期待看到这些表态落实为实际行动,并取得成果。

虽然大多数亚太国家继续追求贸易和经济自由化——例如,通过跨太平洋伙伴关系协议和区域全面经济伙伴关系协议——这些倡议无法弥补贸易战所造成的损害。

除了经济损失外,中美两国之间的紧张关系将使他们在重要议题上的合作变得困难,例如,半岛无核化、区域安全、防止核武器扩散和气候变化等。上述的所有问题,没有两国的充分参与,都无法解决。如果任何一个争端升级并破坏中美两国之间的关系,那么全世界将面临灾难性的后果。

中美两国之间的竞争是意料之中的。但是,这种竞争是否发生在相互依赖和被普遍接受的国际规则框架内,结果是截然不同的。不管怎么说,最关键的还是战争与和平以及世界的安全与稳定。无论是美国,中国和世界其他国家都有太大的风险。

以下为英文原文:

Trade friction between China and the United States has been brewing for some time. But with the Trump administration’s announcement of unilateral tariffs on imports, targeted at China, the specter of a trade war has never been clearer.

There is broad political support in the United States for such measures. American businesses that had previously advocated China’s accession to the World Trade Organization now feel disadvantaged doing business in China. They feel, with some justification, that the playing field is uneven, market access is limited and investments are restricted, especially in the financial and technology sectors. Trade arrangements and concessions made in the past when China was about 5 percent of the world’s gross domestic product are less readily accepted today with China’s share rising to 15 percent.

But unilateral tariffs are not the correct solution. A trade war between the United States and China is far from inevitable, but if one breaks out, it will gravely undermine the rules-based multilateral system that has underpinned global prosperity since the end of World War II. Countries around the world, big and mall, will be hurt.

We believe trade disputes should be resolved within the WTO framework. As economists have pointed out, when assessing economic relationships, what matters is not a country’s bilateral trade balance with a specific trading partner but its overall trade balance with the rest of the world. Furthermore, the cause of a country’s trade deficit lies at home. A trade deficit is the result of a country consuming more than it produces, and it is neither caused nor cured by trade restrictions.

The United States and China share the most important bilateral relationship in the world. Both countries have benefited from an open, rules-based international order and multilateral trading system. This has fostered economic cooperation within the ­Asia-Pacific region and deepened interdependence among Asia, the United States, Europe and the rest of the world.

Asia is the fastest-growing export market for U.S. goods and services. As the world’s second-busiest port and fourth-largest financial center, Singapore is a global hub that connects the economies of the United States and Asia. We are a small, open economy with trade flows more than three times our GDP. A trade war between the two largest economies in the world will have a big, negative impact on ­Singapore.

Since China joined the WTO in 2001, its weight in the global economy and its share of world trade have grown enormously. This has shifted the overall strategic balance. It has also raised reasonable expectations for China to liberalize its markets further and contribute more to the multilateral trading system.

China has declared its commitment to upholding openness and multilateralism. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the “Belt and Road Initiative” are two major efforts by China to strengthen trade and investment ties, and to enhance integration and interdependence. At the recent Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference, President Xi Jinping announced further plans to open up China’s financial sector, liberalize foreign investment rules, protect intellectual property rights and lower tariffs on automobile imports. These moves have been acknowledged and welcomed by President Trump. We look forward to seeing these steps elaborated, implemented and bearing fruit.

Although most Asia-Pacific countries continue to pursue trade and economic liberalization — for example, through the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership — these initiatives will not compensate for the damage caused by a trade war.

Beyond the economic loss, strained ties between the United States and China will make it harder for them to cooperate on other pressing issues such as the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, regional security, nonproliferation and climate change. None of these issues can be solved without the full participation of both countries. If any of these disputes escalates and destabilizes relations between the United States and China, the consequences for the world would be ­disastrous.

Competition between the United States and China is to be expected. But whether this competition takes place within a framework of interdependence and generally accepted international rules makes all the difference. Ultimately, what is at stake is war and peace, and the security and stability of the world. The United States, China and the rest of the world have too much at stake.

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关于中美贸易战,李显龙在《华盛顿邮报》上如是说

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