李显龙拆解中美关税困局,新加坡能否成“避险港湾”?

2025年04月24日   •   4959次阅读

我给你们举个例子—2020 年大选,正值COVID-19 期间。当 COVID-19 出现时,我们距离选举还有一年左右的时间。但当大流行开始变得严重时,我决定在可行的情况下尽快举行选举。有些人说,“不,尽可能推迟”。甚至宣布紧急状态,推迟到 COVID-19 之后。我说:“不,你现在就去”。断路器是没办法的事--我们必须解决眼前的问题。处理完之后,我说:“让我们提前举行一次大选,选出一个拥有全新授权的新团队。我们将面临许多挑战。我们将不得不做出许多艰难的决定。人们将经历许多混乱和困难。我们必须集中精力对抗COVID-19,如果我每天都想制定新的COVID-19政策,却不得不问自己,我应该在选举前还是选举后这样做,那我们就无法做到这一点。新加坡人会死的,真的。因此,我们大选了,我们得到了很好的授权,此后,我们集中精力作为一个国家与 COVID-19 作斗争,我很欣慰地说,我们并没有失败。这是因为我们能够团结起来,将我们的团队凝聚在一起,能够集中精力解决问题。”

2020年大选取得了一个很好的结果,但不幸的是,我们失去了盛港选区,在这个过程中,我们失去了黄志明兄弟作为候选人。这是工运的一个挫折。但幸运的是,黄志明兄弟有毅力和魄力继续担任秘书长,幸运的是工运继续支持他。工运还支持团队中的其他领导人--人民行动党国会议员:王志豪(Heng Chee How)、陈国明(Desmond Tan)、郑德源(Patrick Tay)、朱倍庆(Desmond Choo),以及坚定的工会领导人,如Thana姐妹、Mary姐妹,以及职总中央委员会和工会中的许多其他人。

因此,在大流行病期间,工运领导有方,可以成为政府的好伙伴,并发挥了关键作用。它挽救了工作岗位,推动了技能提升。它管理着自雇人士收入补贴计划(SIRS)。因此,它不仅帮助工会会员或可谈判的雇员,还帮助新加坡的工人,包括自雇人士。此外,它还将目光投向了大流行病之外,成立了企业培训委员会(CTCs),以支持企业提高技能。结果证明,这是一个非常成功的项目。因此,在今年的预算中,我们又投入了2 亿新元的支持,因为你们的钱已经用完了。但我们很高兴,因为它超额完成了你们的计划,是一个很好的项目,所以我们会支持它,做得更多。

因此,全国职工总会能够帮助我们从 COVID-19 中走出来并强劲反弹。这就是三方合作的含义——政府、工会、雇主携手合作。事实上,这就是人民行动党和全国职工总会之间的共生关系所能为工人和新加坡带来的好处。这也是黄循财总理和他的4G团队致力于加强三方合作和共生伙伴关系的原因。我期待你们在下届大选中支持这个团队。尤其是支持团队中的工运领袖和人民行动党工会顾问。

结束语

今晚的演讲或许令人不安,但我认为我有责任来到这里,直接、坦率、诚实地与你们交谈,与你们分享事情的真相。

这是我在从政之初学到的一课,当时我刚刚成为部长,我们正在应对经济衰退,1985年的严重经济危机,我们不得不削减公积金,雇主公积金削减了15个百分点。你们有些上了年纪的人会记得那是一个多么令人震惊和艰难的决定。但我们能够坚持下来,因为当时工会会员对他们的领导人充满信心。王鼎昌兄弟是当时的秘书长。政府部长们--王鼎昌本人、我、吴作栋、时任副部长的林文兴--我们亲自前往工会,与工会领袖交谈,与工人交谈,一次又一次,让他们了解利害关系,让他们支持能让我们摆脱困境的政策。幸运的是,他们相信了我们。他们信任我们。他们接受了建议,接受了治疗,新加坡的恢复速度比预期的要快得多。因此,每当我遇到这样的危机或这样的情况时,我的第一反应就是:“让我们谈谈,了解这是怎么回事。我们能一起做些什么?如何摆脱困境,而不是越陷越深”。因此,我认为我们可以满怀信心地投入战斗。我们有资源,我们有经验--我们已经准备好了。我们曾经做到过,我们将向世界证明,我们可以再次做到。

即将到来的大选至关重要。这是一个变化了的世界。我们有一个新的团队掌权,我们将有新的决心应对挑战,并变得更加强大。

黄循财总理首次带领人民行动党参加选举,寻求自己的使命,带领新加坡向前迈进--渡过危机,实施计划,开创未来。

我希望新加坡人了解正在发生什么,什么事关重大,以及我们必须做些什么来共同确保我们的未来。谢谢大家。

以下内容为英文原稿:

Transcript of speech by Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong at the dialogue with NTUC and union leaders on 14 April 2025.

Good evening brothers and sisters. Thank you for the very, very warm welcome. I did not come to make an announcement; I came to do a dialogue with everybody. I am very glad to do this. We hold these regularly, particularly after Budgets. But tonight, I would like to talk more about what is happening in the world; and what we need to do as a country.

I will start with the Budget. Budget 2025 was the record budget for Singapore. Biggest ever – $143 billion – and it was a comprehensive budget which delivered support where it was most needed. Support for the cost of living, which is very much on people’s minds – CDC vouchers for households, U-Save and S&CC rebates, LifeSG credits for children, and this year being SG60 year, SG60 Vouchers for every adult, $600, or if you have enough white hair, $800. For workers we have enhancements to skills upgrading. SkillsFuture Level-Up Programme, more comprehensive training allowance, and also allowances to help you defray your expenses, even for people on part-time programmes. We have support for businesses and SMEs. Cost relief through grants and rebates, support for the companies to upskill their workforces. And we invested in our growth engines – AI, infrastructure, and in clean energy, for example Climate Vouchers to buy more energy efficient air-conditioners, washing machines, ovens, what have you. So, it was a comprehensive and robust package.

And it was generous for a reason. Because we could see clouds on the horizon. Because we could see that storms were brewing and we wanted to make sure that we were prepared for unexpected things which would happen. We knew what was going on in the Middle East. We could see US-China tensions. We could see the uncertainties in Europe. And most recently of course we could all see what was happening with the new administration in the US under President Trump. Many new policies, fundamental re-thinking of approaches, and we were not sure what new surprises we would expect. And therefore, we prepared a budget, a package, which would be enough. If something goes not quite right, everybody is looked after.

Liberation Day

So, when Liberation Day came, not on the 1st of May, but on the 2nd of April, that was not a complete surprise to us. Because Trump had signalled very clearly, and over many years, that he wanted to do tariffs and he wanted to equalise America’s trade deficit. He believed in tariffs since he was a young man. He had said during this campaign repeatedly that when he comes in, he was going to put tariffs on everybody; it was the most beautiful word in the vocabulary. The first time he was President, eight, nine years ago, he had imposed some tariffs. So, that he was going to do something was not a surprise. But even then, what happened on Liberation Day was more drastic than expected. In fact, it is the biggest shock that the global trading system has ever faced. The stock markets plunged. I think even the bond markets moved in America – interest rates went up, bond prices came down.

For now, there is a 90-day postponement on what Trump calls the "reciprocal tariffs". He has put in some exclusions for Chinese smartphones, laptops, and chips. And so for the time-being, there is a reprieve. But tariffs on all the countries – 10% – that is non-negotiable, and that is in force and happened already. So postponing 90 days sounds like you have got 90 days of reprieve. But actually, during this 90 days, it is not just the tariffs which have been postponed. Because with this thing hanging over you, waiting, not sure if it is going to come or not come, everything else goes into limbo. Because what happens after 90 days? We know that what the US administration wants, is to eliminate the US trade deficit. They want to rebuild manufacturing in the US, bring the jobs back. And they want to do this not only across the board, to balance with the whole world, but they want to do this country-by-country – with China, Japan, Canada, Mexico, Vietnam. Not with Singapore. Why? Because America has a surplus with Singapore - that is all right. If America has a deficit with Singapore, we will be there, high on the list too. It is the way they are thinking about their problems.

So this is the fundamental belief, a very deep motivation. Trump believes it, his team believes it. And these are goals which are going to be very difficult to achieve. So, we must expect him to continue to pursue this objective, and when he makes moves but the moves have not delivered results, I think the conclusion will not be to leave off, but to continue to do more moves and to take further strong measures. So we can expect to see further steps taken by the Americans over time. And that is going to have very major consequences for many countries, including Singapore. So we are here now, steps have been taken, steps yet to come, more uncertainties to come. We are not where we were before this new Administration took office, or before the 2nd of April. The world is in a new phase.

US-China

One of the biggest problems in trade and arising from this tariff package is the damage to US-China relations. America has postponed the tariffs against other countries but has not postponed against China. The tariff war between America and China has already begun. First round, America put 20% on, China responded with selected products. Then America came back again. Went back and forth with China. Now US levies on China are 145% and the Chinese – you do this to me, I do this to you – The Chinese do to US imports, US sales to China, 125%. So, it has reached the level where the number does not matter anymore. It can be 100%, it can be 200%, it can be 300%. How much business is going to be done? Probably, almost none, because it is impossible.

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