李顯龍拆解中美關稅困局,新加坡能否成「避險港灣」?

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新加坡國務資政李顯龍重磅發聲:美國『美國優先』政策正引爆全球貿易地震,中美關稅戰已升級至145%與125%,嚴重威脅新加坡經濟命脈。本文深度解析關稅風暴如何衝擊半導體、製藥等關鍵產業,揭示新加坡如何以1430億新元預算穩民生、強技能、護企業,並攜手東協與CPTPP構建貿易新防線。小國如何在大國博弈中守護安全與發展?答案關乎每個新加坡人的未來。

If you can do all that – look after the households, look after the physical needs, make sure we psychologically prepared – then we can also address the political issue, which is to unite as one Singapore team, working closely with the government. And you need to have a good government, an effective government, a strong government, in order to take care of Singapore. And it has to be strong domestically, in order to be strong internationally.

Let me explain this. I think when you say on foreign policy, Singapore must speak with one voice, I think everybody will agree. Even the opposition agrees. And when you go overseas in a parliamentary delegation, people from different parties, we join the same parliamentary delegation, and we go representing Singapore. But the opposition goes one further. They say, well, overseas, we stand together. Domestically, let’s challenge. Now, that is a problem. Why is that a problem? I tell you, I have been attending international conferences for 20-something years – in fact, for 30, 40, years, but last 20 years at PM. Now, fortunately, PM Wong is doing it. But let me tell you my experience from these conferences. We meet each other regularly, because the conferences happen every year, every other year. This time I see you, maybe next time I see your successor. And in some countries, every time I go to a conference, I see a new PM. Sometimes, I see the PM, I look at his delegation, I see some of the faces there, I read the newspapers, I know that some of those people are hoping to be the next PM. And sometimes it turns out so. So when you meet each other, I assess you, you assess me. I will ask myself, 「I am talking to you now. Your Excellency, Prime Minister, yes, sir.」 Will you still be here in five years』 time? Will your policy still be here in five years』 time? Can I do business with you, commit and we do something, make a plan? To build a factory may take two, three years. To breakeven on the factory may take 10, 20 years. If you are not going to be here, can I make a deal? So I assess them. Do you think they assess me? Of course! They will see what is happening. They will have their embassies here writing reports. And if you have different views in Singapore, embassies say, well, this PM makes very good speeches, but actually he has a lot of political problems at home. When you meet them, you will be received with the courtesies, but I think they are not carrying the same weight, and you will not be able to defend and advance Singapore's interests in this state.

On the other hand, if they know you are on top of your situation at home, if they know you have strong support, good support, they know you are in touch with your population and you have got your domestic issues well under control, then they take you seriously. In fact, they will ask you, 「By the way, your healthcare system I hear is not bad, tell me how you do it.」 Or, it has happened to me once, we were discussing corruption. This was quite early in one of my first APEC meetings as PM and one of the big countries said to me, 「Singapore, tell us how you combat corruption.」 They know about us. They want to know how it works. Makes a big difference.

Therefore, to be effective internationally, to be strong at all, you have to be united domestically. And when people say, Singapore is a safe haven. In an uncertain world, in Singapore, you have security, you have safety. That is why people want to put family offices here. That is why people want to deposit money here. That is why people have confidence and put factories worth billions of dollars here, which take 20, 30 years to pay back, because of Singapore being a safe haven. And one big part of that safe haven, one big factor, is stable politics, good politics.

I know that many Singaporeans want more opposition and if you ask why, they will say, well, we would like a stronger check and balance on the PAP. And I would say the opposition has a role to play in our democratic system. It is here to stay. Opposition MPs are never going to disappear from Parliament. I accept this. That is the way democracies work. We started in a very unusual position with almost overwhelming PAP presence in Parliament, almost zero opposition. And now there is significant opposition, and I do not think that is ever going to change, and we will work with this.

But Singapore also needs an effective system of government which is led by a good and capable ruling party, and that depends on elections delivering outcomes which work for Singapore. And what are outcomes which work for Singapore? They are when, after the election, the country is able to generate a leadership which is capable, which is committed, which is honest, which can run a competent and efficient, effective government. Defend our place in the world and lead Singapore safely through crisis.

That is ultimately what elections are about; to choose who is to lead the country and to make sure that the team which can lead the country can do so well. In fact, ideally the team which can lead the country most successfully and most effectively. And part of the system is you have the ruling party and you have the opposition party. You have ruling MPs and opposition MPs. But if voters keep on electing more opposition MPs, even when the government is doing a good job, then beyond a point, it must weaken the government's ability to govern, to form the best possible team for Singapore and to run this country the way Singaporeans have come to expect. It must be so. Some people say the civil service is marvellous, you do not need a good minister. Anybody can be the minister. The Permanent Secretary would do the work, you just sit there and say yes or no. It is like saying you do not need a good Sec-Gen; the unions are fine, Sec-Gen just sits there and says, "Everything is good". Really? When you work in a company, is that how it works? If you see a company where the boss is doing that sort of thing, do you think good people are still going to be in that company? Or they will say, "This place has no hope, better go and work for a better boss". To run a good team, you need a good leader. And if you do not have a good leader, a good team will melt away. And we need to have that kind of leadership, that kind of quality, in order for Singapore to perform and to succeed the way it deserves to.

I give you an example – GE 2020, during COVID-19. When COVID-19 came, we were about a year away from elections. But when the pandemic started to get serious, I decided to call elections as soon as practicable. Some people said, 「No, put it off as late as possible.」 Even declare an emergency and postpone it till after COVID-19. I said, "No, you go now". Circuit Breaker could not be helped – we had to deal with an immediate problem. Once that was done, I said, "Let us call an early General Election; get a new team elected with a fresh full mandate. We are going to have a lot of challenges. We are going to have make a lot of difficult decisions. People are going to go through a lot of dislocation and hardship. We must have our minds focused on fighting COVID-19, and we cannot do that if every day I want to make a new COVID-19 policy, I have to ask myself, should I do this before or after the election?" Singaporeans will die, literally. So we went, we got a good mandate, and thereafter we focused on fighting COVID-19 as one nation, and I am relieved to say, not unsuccessfully. And it was because we were able to unite and put our team together and be able to focus on solving problems.

It was a good result, but unfortunately, we lost Sengkang GRC and in the process, we lost Brother Ng Chee Meng as a candidate. It was a setback for the Labour Movement. But fortunately, Brother Chee Meng had the staying power, the gumption, to continue serving as Sec-Gen, and fortunately the Labour Movement continued to support him. It also supported the other leaders on the team – the PAP MPs: Heng Chee How, Desmond Tan, Patrick Tay, Desmond Choo as well as stalwart union leaders like Sister Thana, Sister Mary, and many others on the Central Committee and in the unions.

And therefore, during the pandemic, the Labour Movement was well-led, and it could be a good partner to the Government, and it played a key role. It saved jobs, it pushed for skills upgrading. It administered SIRS – Self-Employed Person Income Relief Scheme. So that it was not just helping union members or bargainable employees, but workers of Singapore, including self-employed workers. And it looked beyond the pandemic, to set-up Company Training Committees (CTCs) to support businesses in upskilling. Turned out to be a very successful project. And so this year in the budget, we put another $200 million of support, because you had run out of money. But we were very happy that it had overfulfilled your plan and it was a good programme, so we will support it, do more.

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